An overview of current next-generation UCAV programmes
06:33 GMT, October 7, 2009 This article is to provide a review of the current status of UCAV (Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles) around the world, addressing both technological issues as well as operational implications. Having been published in one of the recent issues of MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, it is reproduced here as part of the current defpro.focus “Taking UAVs to the Next Level” which can be accessed here: http://www.defpro.com/focus/profile/uav/. To provide you a comprehensive but still clear overview, this article has been divided into two parts. Part 1 has been published at defpro.com on 5 October 2009.
With this background of opportunities and challenges, let us examine the status of UCAV programmes currently progressing around the world. For the purpose of this article, the term “UCAVs” is used to define armed UAVs that are expected to return home after the completion of their mission unless lost due to enemy action or other causes, even including the capability to bring back their weapons if the mission is aborted. Loitering weapons or one-way attack drones are not included in our survey.
BAE Systems TARANIS (United Kingdom)
Based on a £124 million contract awarded in December 2006, BAE System’s TARANIS is the UK MoD’s UCAV technology demonstrator as part of the Strategic Unmanned Air Vehicle (Experiment) or SUAV(E). The project builds on BAE’s experience in the autonomous field, which it has now entered in a significant way with UAVs like HERTI, FURY, MANTIS and previous technology demonstrators such as CORAX and RAVEN. It also incorporates low-observable work done by BAE in the REPLICA and NIGHTJAR programmes.
TARANIS itself is an 8 ton stealthy demonstrator, roughly the size of the HAWK trainer. It also uses the HAWK’s Roll-Royce 6,480lb thrust ADOUR 951 engine, although BAE has yet to officially confirm this. As well as Rolls-Royce, other partners on the project include QinetiQ and GE Aviation (formerly Smiths). With BAE as the programme lead and system integrator, QinetiQ is contributing AI software, communications subsystems and a flight safety system, while GE Aviation is supplying vehicle systems support electronics.
Work began on the physical build of the airframe in 2007, with assembly beginning in early 2008. The demonstrator is set to start ground trials and testing later this year, with a first flight set for 2010. BAE Systems are coy about where the flight trials of TARANIS will take place, merely saying it is “overseas”. However informed sources predict that the TARANIS, like the MANTIS, FURY and other BAE UAV demonstrators will be tested at the Woomera range in South Australia. The flight test campaign is expected to last some six months. Although TARANIS boasts two weapon bays, no weapons will be actually dropped during these tests, with weapon carriage and release to be emulated instead.
BAE hopes that the success of the TARANIS will convince the UK MoD to push for a follow-on programme that could lead to a production UCAV. The RAF itself has indicated a preference for a “small number” of stealthy penetrating types in a recent force mix study, which a follow-on UCAV from TARANIS could potentially fulfil.
CAIC 1 ANJIAN (China)
China is also becoming interested in UCAV technology, with a model of an aggressive-looking concept called ANJIAN (“Dark Sword”) appearing in public at recent airshows. Further details on the system have, as might be expected, been extremely vague; however its configuration is especially intriguing. While the majority of UCAVs have been optimised for subsonic flight, the ANJIAN, with canards and twin vertically canted fins, as well as what looks like a supersonic (or even ramjet) inlet is clearly built for speed and manoeuvrability over stealth. The location of the forward-swept lip engine inlet, underneath the forward fuselage, J-10 style also seems to accentuate agility over low-observable features.
So the question remains - what is it? A student engineer’s sub-scale project “bigged up” to attract attention at airshows? Or a serious Chinese effort to leap-frog current UCAV technology and go directly to an unmanned air superiority fighter? Whichever it is, the “Dark Sword” provides a valuable insight into Chinese thinking about UCAV development and a willingness to entertain configurations that are against the grain of the developing UCAV design and doctrine orthodoxy of tailless delta/B-2-style configurations, top mounted inlets/exhausts with subsonic performance and restricted agility.
France’s Dassault is the prime industrial contractor in a multinational UCAV project, nEUROn, which now includes input from six European countries in a €400 million programme. First began in 2004, nEUROn builds on Dassault’s previous stealthy UCAV technology demonstrator work with its “Petit Duc” (AVE-C/D) sub-scale programme which was started in 2000. Originally envisaged as the final phase in this line of development as the AVE “Grand Duc”, the project was then scaled down (from a twin-engine to a single engine design) and expanded with the inclusion of foreign companies to become a pan-European project. Renamed nEUROn in recognition of this, the partners now include Sweden’s SAAB (bringing its own extensive work on UAVs and UCAVs such as the SHARC and FILUR to the team), Italy’s Alenia Aeronautica (again with experience from its own SKY-X and SKY-Y UAVs), Spain’s EADS CASA, Switzerland’s RUAG Aerospace (which developed the RANGER UAV) and Greece’s Hellenic Aerospace Industry (HAI). While Dassault is acting as the prime, responsible for system integration, flight control system, final assembly and flight test programme the other partners have the following workloads: SAAB - design, fuselage, avionics, Alenia Aeronautica - weapon bay, weapon sensors, EADS-CASA - wing, ground control station, RUAG - weapon carriage, wind tunnel tests and HAI - rear fuselage, nozzle. In addition Thales is onboard to provide the communications data-link.
The air vehicle itself has a 12.5m wingspan, and like the TARANIS will be powered by the Rolls-Royce/Turbomeca ADOUR engine. SAAB, responsible for the fuselage, will start the assembly of the main section this summer, and deliver it to Dassault for final assembly in 2010. First flight has been set for 2011, and flight testing is set to be carried out in France, Sweden and Italy over a period of 18 months. Interestingly the nEUROn is also expected to carry out weapon release tests in 2012 from its two bomb-bays and will incorporate an electro-optical sensor for target acquisition.
Although the nEUROn will be equipped with weapons, and is expected to have an endurance of 12 hours, it is still only a technology demonstrator and roughly three-quarters the scale of a production version. However, should Dassault and its partners prove successful with nEUROn it will give Europe new industrial capabilities, not only in UCAVs, but in low-observable and autonomous vehicles as well. A production version of the nEUROn, perhaps developed again via a pan-European consortium à la Eurofighter, would provide a competitor for any US UCAV exports on the world market and also leave the UK (TARANIS) and Germany (BARRACUDA) with the option of joining this effort or going it alone.
EADS BARRACUDA (Germany)
To emphasise the difficulties inherent with the development of UCAV systems it is instructive to look at Germany’s EADS Military Air Systems BARRACUDA, the first and only prototype of which was lost in an accident in September 2006 off the Spanish coast. With the programme left in limbo for two years, the project was restarted in 2008, with a second demonstrator funded and ahs now been assembled ready to be tested. A press report in claimed that flight tests in Greenland could begin again this year, however EADS declined to give an update on the status of the programme for this article.
In parallel, EADS has also attracted partners for another “Advanced UAV” programme with experience and lessons learnt from the BARRACUDA, which would use a modular approach to develop a surveillance UAV family with a common fuselage and centre section which could then be developed into long–endurance or hi-speed variants. However, unlike the BARRACUDA, which incorporates stealth elements into its configuration, the Advanced UAV (new 'Talarion'), even with its shorter wings, is clearly not aimed at entering any type of contested airspace.
EADS Military Air Systems future UCAV work thus rests on the success of its second BARRACUDA prototype and whether it can make up the lost time. Whatever the outcome, too, should it wish to continue in this technology sphere, it will have to give serious thought to joining either the UK or pan-European nEUROn groupings if they decide to go ahead with production versions. The question will be, if European industry can support three competing fighter programmes (EUROFIGHTER, GRIPEN and RAFALE), how many next generation UCAV projects can co-exist?
MiG SCAT (Russia)
First unveiled in 2007, at the MAKS Air Show in Moscow, MiG’s SKAT (“Skate”) UCAV demonstrator shows that even Russia is now becoming interested in the capabilities of unmanned combat aircraft. Development of the SKAT concept began in 2005, with MiG using experience from not only its manned fighters, but also from missile and previous Cold War UCAV concepts. Partners on the project include Klimov (RD-93 engine), Irkut (mission avionics), Khius LLC (composite structures) as well as state research departments.
The SKAT has a similar layout to other UCAVs of a blended-wing body, with a tailless modified delta platform and a top-mounted engine inlet. Seen from the front, the inlet shields the engine with a bifurcated design. It also, as discussed below, allows room for a cockpit to be installed for a manned test version (SKAT –PD). Officially the reason is said to be that human pilot is required because of flight test regulations in controlled airspace, however given the vast airspace over unpopulated parts of Russia, it may be that the real reason behind the piloted version is to act as a human override while MiG perfects the autonomous and AI flight control systems.
The technology demonstrator is also equipped with weapon bays able to carry a maximum combat load of 2,000lbs, and flight tests are said to include live weapon drops at some point in the programme. The SKAT has a maximum speed at sea level of 800km/h and range will be up to 4,000km.
Since the mock-up was unveiled two years ago, MiG have been reluctant to give a date for the first flight, but it may be surmised that an announcement may be forthcoming in the next couple of years. Should MiG proceed with this line of development, and thus SKAT lead to a production UCAV, this could well increase the competition in the global market, and put UCAVs in the budget of many more air forces around the world.
Northrop Grumman X-47B UCAS-D (United States)
First of this new generation of UCAVs to fly is Northrop Grumman’s X-47B Naval UCAS or UCAS-D, which originally sprung from the Pentagon’s J-UCAS project, which saw Boeing (with the X-45A/B) compete against Northrop Grumman with the X-47A PEGASUS. However, the intention to provide a common UCAV system for both the US Force and US Navy floundered, leaving the US Navy to carry the unmanned torch forward with the Naval UCAS programme, based on a contract awarded in November 2007.
The $635 million X-47B programme seeks to integrate unmanned air vehicles with routine carrier operations, as well as solve the thorny problem of landing a tailless air vehicle on an aircraft carrier (a challenge that the cancelled General Dynamics A-12 AVENGER II attack aircraft never got to face). The X-47B is a technology demonstrator for a stealthy long-range ISR and strike aircraft. Major partners on the project include Pratt & Whitney (F100 engine), Lockheed Martin (control surfaces, leading edges, engine inlet) and GKN Aerospace (substructure and skins).
The vehicle itself is a tailless, modified delta shape, similar to a scaled down B-2. Similar in size to an F-18, it will also sport twin weapon bays able to carry a payload of 4,500lb. Though no weapon drops are funded at this time, the company is already speaking to the Navy about other potential weapon options, such as the 250lb Small Diameter Bombs (of which twelve could be carried). Indeed, Special Forces are reported to be interested in even smaller “micro-bombs” to reduce collateral damage, almost bringing the evolution of air-to-ground weapons full circle back to flechettes dropped by WW1 airmen. Interestingly, the weapon bay is also sized to accept AMRAAM air-to-air missiles although the vehicle is not stressed for any air-to-air combat.
Northrop Grumman says the X-47B will have “broadband stealth” which will reduce its vulnerabilities to the triple-digit SAMs now in production and on the drawing board. However, they also admit that they are proposing that the US Navy considers modular, variable levels of stealth, depending on the threat environment. For example, the B-2’s level of stealth, which comes with a massive price tag to maintain, is overkill for the threat environment of Iraq of Afghanistan. Northrop believes therefore, that a modular, variable level of low observability would allow the US Navy to scale-up and scale-down any future UCAVs stealth, depending on the threat scenario and thus save money.
It is important to remember that the X-47B (as with other UCAVs in this review) is still a technology demonstrator - not a first prototype of a production vehicle. However, the demonstrator clearly points to a step change in capability. For instance, Northrop says that with air-to-air refuelling, it will have a 50-hour+ endurance - long enough to get to a target area (from a carrier well over the horizon some 2,500nm away) and remain persistently on station for a phenomenal amount of time (24h). The X-47B, too, will be equipped with both US Navy and USAF air-to-air refuelling points for maximum flexibility.
The key here is that both the US Navy and Northrop Grumman see the danger zone for aircraft carrier groups pushing further and further away from the shore in the future, due to supersonic sea-skimming missiles and air threats. This means that for aircraft to stay above a hostile territory, either a lot of manned aircraft are needed, or a persistent UCAV with air–to-air refuelling to complete the same mission. Indeed, experts contend the limiting factor is now the endurance and rest periods needed for aircrews. With the X-47B, as soon as it is rearmed and refuelled (roughly 2 hours) it can be sent back into battle.
The first prototype X-47B was rolled-out in December 2008, with the first flight planned later this year in November. Meanwhile a second prototype has already entered assembly and is set to fly in 2010. Flight tests will run from 2009 to 2013, with carrier landings to begin in late 2011. Says Tim Beard, Deputy Director, Navy UCAS Programme, Northrop Grumman: “Our contract is to demonstrate command and control of the X-47B to and from a carrier at sea; demonstrate capabilities to land and launch from a carrier multiple times and to demonstrate a moderate level of support and maintainability aboard the carrier”.
To support this challenging goal, Northrop have “vastly exceeded” the simulation tests done on manned aircraft before first flight. Software is being tested on a ground-based IRON BIRD as well as four different surrogate aircraft (F/A-18, LEAR JET, BN-2 ISLANDER and KING AIR). As a final test, an F/A-18 with the X-47Bs software installed will conduct “hands-off” carrier landings and launches to verify the data and profiles.
Interestingly for such a project, one of the most difficult issues is not landing (automatic hands-off carrier landings have been around as an aid for pilots for some time) but how to manoeuvre the aircraft once on the crowded, noisy and dangerous deck, in the ballet that is parking on a carrier. Traditionally this relies on following hand signals from deck crew - which may be extremely difficult to automate. Northrop says they are still in discussions with the Navy and there are no answers yet, but this demonstrates how challenging this programme is.
”Black” Programmes
In addition to the publicly announced programmes covered so far, it may also be that there are a small number of still classified UCAV programmes ongoing. Some observers, indeed, speculate that the US may already have an operational UCAV force, much in the manner of the way the F-117 was kept secret for some time. The demise of the US J-UCAS programme, some speculate, was not the end of the USAF’s interest in UCAVs, and indeed it allowed the Service to move its projects into the “black” ultra-high classified world. Programmes like Boeing’s BIRD OF PREY, Lockheed Martin’s POLECAT and BAE’s REPLICA show the amount of work going on low-observable shapes in recent years.
One nation that appears to be missing a declared UCAV programme is Israel, which is rather perplexing given the country’s pivotal role in developing and pioneering the use of other UAVs. Indeed, speculations about the existence of armed versions of either the HERMES 450 or/and the HERON UAV family have been rife for several years now, and there are reports from various sources about these platforms have been used extensively during the Second Lebanon War in 2006 and more recently Operation “Cast Lead” in Gaza.
Back in the late ‘90s, Israel did also have an officially announced programme for the possible use of UCAVs for ballistic missile defence. The MOAB Ballistic Phase Interceptor (BPI) concept called for a notional stealth HALE (High Altitude Long Endurance) UAV to loiter near the suspected launching sites on enemy IRBMs or tactical ballistic missiles, ready to intercept them immediately after launch with a boosted version of the PYTHON IV air-to-air missile. The programme was subsequently abandoned, however, in favour of the ARROW 2 interceptor.
Market Forces
The six-million question remains: how big is the market? No-one as yet knows the answer, but some academics, analysts and air forces are already fumbling around for potential clues. The RAF, for example, revealed during a recent Royal Aeronautical Society conference that it has undertaken a future force mix study on UAV/UCAV requirements. Its current thinking, outlined by Air Commodore Mark Roberts, Director, Air Staff foresees a mixed force of a small number of penetrating, low observable high-end UCAVs, potentially with a small number of HALE surveillance and ISTAR UAVs, along with a large number of “semi-disposable” UAVs that can be equipped with modular systems for particular missions.
Meanwhile in the US, the USAF has pulled back from its original plan to develop an unmanned bomber and terminated its involvement in the J-UCAS although it might be assumed that a production X-47B in the SEAD role may well be extremely attractive acquisition.
Pricing could also determine the market for these weapon systems. Tim Beard, Northrop Grumman says he believes that a production UCAV would approach the price of an F-35. The real savings then, are likely to be in training and support rather than upfront acquisition. However, other sources estimate that a production UCAV could cost as little as €25 million. These wide ranges in cost estimates reflect the big “unknown unknowns” of UCAV future development but it seems safe to assume, that like all the latest military technology, only the richest and most advanced air forces will be able to operate them initially.
Be this as it may, the perception of a promising market ahead is already leading to mounting industrial interest, including through private-venture initiatives. For instance, General Atomics has recently flown the PREDATOR C AVENGER, a radically redesigned derivative version of the PREDATOR/REAPER family featuring jet rather than turboprop propulsion for a 20h-endurance, and enhanced stealth features including most notably an internal weapon bay. By the same token, French company SAGEM will unveil at the Paris Air Show a weaponised version of their SPERWER B UAV, carrying two SPIKE missiles and developed based on a feasibility study contract by the French Defence Procurement Authority (DGA)
Major Challenges
In conclusion then these programmes are now moving forward to critical stages and the next couple of years will be especially interesting as the new shapes move from design to flying prototypes. It is still early days but the potential of UCAVs bring new capabilities to the air power practitioners namely a stealthy weapon system, able to penetrate the most lethal threat zones to prosecute its target. Persistence too, opens up new options for commanders, and the development of directed energy weapons would seem a natural fit for these vehicles. Tim Beard agrees: “UCAVs offer more range, endurance and persistence over targets than manned alternatives - particularly if they are in-flight refuelable”. However, there still remain major challenges in testing and certifying these UCAVs, as well as the inevitable cost spiral of advanced defence technology. But perhaps the biggest challenge will be cultural (convincing pilot-centric air forces) and one of ethics - will we ever feel comfortable that a computer will have its finger on the trigger?
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By Tim Robinson
The author, Tim Robinson, is Deputy Editor at the Royal Aeronautical Society’s “Aerospace International”.
A small side note as there are several dated details in this article. Notably, the Advanced UAV is now the Talarion and is primarily on offer to France, Germany and Spain with development funding due for approval by the respective governments shortly. A second Barracuda flew from Goose Bay in Canada in July this year for the German-funded Agile UAV in Network Centric Environment (Agile UAV-NCE) technology programme.
Created: 2009-10-07 13:07:44
Military Technology (MILTECH)
Nicolas von Kospoth
Michael Fishpool
